Six Year Rookie IDP Success Rate Tracker

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Dive Into The Numbers Of Rookie IDP Players Drafted The Past Six Seasons And The “Hit Rate” For First Year Relevancy


Oddsmaker By The Numbers:

Overall Rookie IDP who have managed to reach the top 64 in combined tackles according to NFL.com end of the year statistics in their rookie season. This is an all position and all player available ranking. Tiers may vary, but I choose to use these tiers for a floor with “standard” size leagues of 10 – 14 teams and with 6 – 8 IDPs per starting lineup.

 

Tier 1 = Ranked 1 – 16  

Tier 2 = Ranked 17 – 32

Tier 3 = Ranked 33 – 48

Tier 4 = Ranked 49 – 64

 

The Last Six Seasons:

2013 IDPs drafted: 51 DL – 25 LB – 52 DB (128)

Tier 1: WLB Kiko Alonso ranked 3rd

Tier 2: WLB Alec Ogletree ranked 25th

Tier 3: S Jonathan Cyprian ranked 40th

Tier 4: N/A

Total: 4 out of 128 (3.12%)

2014 IDPs drafted: 42 DL – 34 LB – 53 DB (129)

Tier 1: ILB C.J. Mosley ranked 7th

Tier 2: W/MLB Preston Brown ranked 23rd

Tier 2: ILB Chris Borland ranked 27th

Tier 3: WLB Telvin Smith ranked 33rd

Tier 4: S Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix ranked 51st

Total: 5 out of 129 (3.8%)

2015 IDPs drafted: 43 DL – 36 LB – 46 DB (125)

Tier 1: N/A

Tier 2: MLB Stephone Anthony ranked 20th (tied)

Tier 2: S Landon Collins ranked 20th (tied)

Tier 3: MLB Kwon Alexander ranked 44th

Tier 3: MLB Eric Kendricks ranked 45th

Tier 4: N/A

Total: 4 out of 125 (3.2%)

2016 IDPs drafted: 42 DL – 34 LB – 51 DB (127)

Tier 1: N/A

Tier 2: MLB Deion Jones ranked 25th

Tier 2: S Keanu Neal ranked 26th

Tier 3: N/A

Tier 4: CB Daryl Worley ranked 51st

Tier 4: S Vonn Bell ranked 53rd

Total: 4 out of 127 (3.1%)

2017 IDPs drafted:  42 DL – 32 LB – 56 DB (130)

Tier 1: N/A

Tier 2: MLB Jarrard Davis ranked 28th

Tier 2: I/OLB Zach Cunningham ranked 38th

Tier 3: N/A

Tier 4: S Jamal Adams ranked 61st

Total: 3 out of 130 (3.9%)

2018 IDPs drafted:  43 DL – 39 LB – 47 DB (129)

Tier 1: WLB Darius Leonard ranked 1st

Tier 1: W/MLB Leighton Vander Esch ranked 3rd

Tier 1: WILB/MILB Fred Warner ranked 12th

Tier 1: MLB Tremaine Edmunds ranked 13th (Tied)

Tier 1: MILB Roquan Smith ranked 13th (Tied)

Tier 2: SS/FS Jessie Bates ranked 23rd

Tier 2: SS/FS Derwin James ranked 29th

Tier 3: N/A

Tier 4: WLB/MLB Foyesade Oluokun

Tier 4: SS/FS Justin Reid

Total: 9 out of 129 (6.97%)


Grand Totals For Last Six Seasons.

Total IDP Drafted: 768

Total Rookies Reaching Tier 1 – 4: 29

2013 – 2017 Five Year Success Rate Was: 3.12%

New Six-Year Grand Total Success Rate:


So the 2019 IDP Tipster Outlook is: The odds are against the 2019 class on paper. 2018 was an exceptional year for rookies. So if we look at it that the odds for 2019 would improve the percentage again we might say it is a 1 in 6 chance. I won’t be adjusting my final comment below from last year.

Don’t depend on the hyped rookies in assisting you to win in his first season, no matter what the hype!

Personal Note: This is why I don’t like ranking rookies in my upper tiers when ranking IDPs. This is also why we should never depend on a rookie for our starting lineups. There are too many factors that can play out from what can be rookies being injury prone to their acclimation to the pro-level of the NFL.

You may find that I support or hype a rookie from time to time. Please don’t ever take that as more than me promoting at a “rookie level.” They are great “sleepers” or “fliers” and as long as we approach it this way we will not be disappointed but elated when they do succeed. This is why I personally target second thru fourth-year players, I’ll pay the price after they show us something.

And there is nothing better or safer to me personally than a veteran who has displayed his talents for at least a couple of seasons. Being Consistent matters, period.

Thank you again for reading and please feel free to find me on Twitter @TheIDPTipster for everything IDP and the No Bullshit IDP Content Deliveries.

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